The initial GACW target market is giant mining truck and wheel-loader tire replacement with air-suspension steel wheels (51”, 57” and 63” rim sizes, 9’-13’ OD).
The active US population (20% of the world population) of the giant wheels/tires is 50,400 truck wheels/tires plus 2,960 wheel loader wheels/tires, equal 53,360 wheels/tires total, which needs replacement in every 8 months. The total market size is thus 80,400 wheels/tires annually. At an average giant rubber tire price of $ 82,500, that represents a $ 6.63 billion hazardous waste to be paid for by the US mining companies in every year. At an average truck price of $ 3.25 million, the US mines could buy and operate 365 more giant trucks annually, one for every day in a year.
The inactive population is 16,000 giant wheels/tires. Upon the coming economic upturn, about 35% of these will be activated (5,600 wheels/tires). By about 2019, that will bring the total active giant wheels/tires 56,000. This reactivated inventory however is disregarded in this assessment.
Assuming that 1 of each 10 giant rubber tires will be replaced by lifetime wheels (ASWs) of the active population (10% market penetration in 20 years) the need for ASWs in the USA 8,040 or 804 annually (67/mo). With only 1% initial market penetration, the need is 80/yr (7/mo), corresponding to at least one truck/wheel-loader monthly over the next 20 years. Trucks has 6 tires and wheel-loaders 4.
At a $ 165,000 average ASW price, which corresponds to about 2x average giant rubber tire price with rim, in the next 20 years, in the USA, GACW has a $ 13.3 bn/yr market potential with a $ 265 bn market cap (money inflation and giant wheel population growth neglected). At 10% market penetration level, the GACW revenue potential is $ 1.33 bn/yr, for the next 20 years.
Once a giant wheel/tire is replaced with an ASW, for 20 years, no further replacement is needed and counted on. The lifetime of a giant truck is 20 years. At least 1/20th of the truck/wheel-loader inventory will remain to be replaced, ensuring a market floor of $ 665 million annually, which is $ 66.5 million at 10% market penetration. The market penetration however is expected to grow at least 5x or more (50% market penetration level), before, during or after the 20-year introductory period.
The market research data used here is posted at http://parkerbaymining.com/ .